We need a universally accepted definition of reserves reporting. by Fatih Birol

We need a universally accepted definition of reserves reporting.

Fatih Birol

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Categorized in : Needs Definitions Accepted

We are on the brink of a new energy order. Over the next few decades, our reserves of oil will start to run out and it is imperative that governments in both producing and consuming nations prepare now for that time. We should not cling to crude down to the last drop – we should leave oil before it leaves us. That means new approaches must be found soon..... The really important thing is that even though we are not yet running out of oil, we are running out of time.

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Energy is significantly underpriced in many parts of the world, leading to wasteful consumption, price volatility and fuel smuggling. It's also undermining the competitiveness of renewables.

climate energy business

There are many disturbing news. We believe that the production of conventional petroleum reached peak oil already in 2006. The oil fields in the North Sea and the US are collapsing ... time is running out.

sea running believe

We are on track for a 3.5 deg C rise by 2040 (i.e. 4.2 deg C relative to pre-industrial)... When I look at this data, the trend is perfectly in line with a temperature increase of 6 degrees Celsius, which would have devastating consequences for the planet. We have 5 years to change the energy system, or have it changed

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Just 8% of the $409bn spent on fossil-fuel subsidies in 2010 went to the poorest 20% of the population.

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Energy markets can be thought of as suffering from appendicitis due to fossil fuel subsidies. They need to be removed for a healthy energy economy.

healthy business suffering

If production does not increase in Iraq in an exponential way between now and 2015, we have a very big problem, even if Saudi Arabia meets its obligations. The figures are very simple, you do not need to be an expert. It is enough to know how to do a subtraction. China will grow very quickly, India also, and even Saudi Arabia projections of the 3 Mb/day will not be enough to meet the rise of Chinese demand.

chinese iraq simple

To achieve this, it has to take advantage of the huge potential that solar, wind, hydropower, natural gas and energy efficiency offer.

Renewables are already the world's second largest source of electricity, but their deployment still needs to accelerate if we are to achieve long-term climate, air quality and energy access goals, as costs continue to fall, we have a growing incentive to ramp up the deployment of solar PV.

China is experiencing its slowest economic growth in the last three decades, so are some of the advanced economies ... if the global economy performs even poorer than we assume, then we may even look at our numbers once again in the next months to come.

We are keeping a close eye on what is happening there. And if something happens we are ready to act quickly and decisively.

In the very short-term, the effect of those options are not very huge. We should think of options and work on them. They will not bring a major change in the current markets but will be helpful in the medium and longer term.

Substantial amount of oil is coming from the United States, about 1.8 million barrels per day, plus oil from Iraq, Brazil and Libya.

This is a major concern for global energy security, for global oil security and for global energy markets, we are monitoring events very closely.

We have seen an extraordinary increase in global energy demand in 2018, growing at its fastest pace this decade, last year can also be considered another golden year for gas ... but despite major growth in renewables, global emissions are still rising, demonstrating once again that more urgent action is needed on all fronts.

Such a decline in global investment for renewables and energy efficiency combined is worrying, this could threaten the expansion of clean energy needed to meet energy security, climate and clean air goals. While we would need this investment to go up rapidly, it is disappointing to find that it might be falling this year.

The industry appears on track to achieve positive free cash flow for the first time ever this year, turning into a more mature and financially solid industry while production is growing at its fastest pace ever.

It was misleading to believe that there would be a huge amount of new Iranian crude and natural gas production entering market in the short term, it would take some time in terms of developing new oil fields, finding transmission routes and having the necessary market conditions.

The most important thing for Nepal is to bring electricity to its people, in my view, the best action for Nepal right now would be to take the cheapest option – renewable energy.

Our expectation is to see prices gradually rising to $80 around 2020, we estimate this year investments in oil will decline more than 20 percent. But, perhaps even more importantly, this decline will continue next year as well.