Never forget this simple truism: Forecasting is marketing, plain and simple. Barry Ritholtz More Quotes by Barry Ritholtz More Quotes From Barry Ritholtz Salesmen always need something to sell. Barry Ritholtz salesman sells needs The good news is that economists are intelligent, engaging and often charming folks. The bad news is their work is often of little use to investors. Barry Ritholtz news intelligent use One thing I detest most about the financial press is the lack of accountability. All sorts of nonsense is said without penalty. Barry Ritholtz nonsense accountability financial This ugly duckling investment will likely need time - quarters, or even years - to blossom into a beautiful swan. Barry Ritholtz ugly-duckling swans beautiful Keynes vs Hayek? Friedman vs Krugman? Those are the wrong intellectual debates. Its you vs. Tony Hayward, BP CEO, You vs. Lloyd Blankfein, Goldman Sachs CEO. And you are losing... Barry Ritholtz debate intellectual losing For those of you who may be unaware, [Michael] Boskin is the economist/weasel/fraud who helped to officially distort the CPI, making it more or less worthless as a measure of inflation. The Boskin Commission... was an act of cowardice. Rather than man up and say fix this, its broken, we can't afford it. Barry Ritholtz broken may men Returnless risk is not how you prepare for a decent retirement. Barry Ritholtz decent risk retirement Unlike cheap stocks, inexpensive asset classes have a lower chance of big drawdowns (broad asset classes don't go to zero) and a higher probability of average or better returns. Barry Ritholtz zero class average If I am going to trash others for their dumb predictions, I must at least hold myself to the same sort of accountability. Barry Ritholtz trash accountability dumb Rather than engage in the sort of selective retention that so many investors tend to do and pretend mistakes never happened, I prefer to own them. This allows me to learn from them and, with any luck, avoid making the same errors again. Barry Ritholtz errors luck mistake You can blow on the dice all you want, but whether they come up seven is still a function of random luck. Barry Ritholtz luck blow want History is replete with examples of tech firms that were marginalized by new companies and technologies. Barry Ritholtz firm technology example The market is going to love it. The market always seems to applaud major mergers, even though the vast majority of them don't work out and don't increase shareholder value. Barry Ritholtz mergers majority work-out I find it funny that people who didn't think there was any inflation in the pipeline are now talking about stagflation. This is nothing like the 1970's, which was a pretty dismal period and not just because of polyester and disco. Barry Ritholtz talking people thinking 'Excessive regulation in the banking reform bill will destroy a substantial part of our bond-distributing machinery. Can anyone expect that a step of this kind will improve the quality of our long-term investments?' Barry Ritholtz quality political long It is important for investors to understand what they do and don't know. Learn to recognize that you cannot possibly know what is going to happen in the future, and any investment plan that is dependent on accurately forecasting where markets will be next year is doomed to failure. Barry Ritholtz next-year important years We don't know if this correction will be modest or significant, a full-blown bear market or worse, lacking sufficient information to make an informed decision, I only suggest you don't make wild unsubstantiated guesses with your portfolios. Barry Ritholtz business Commissions add up, taxes are a big drag, margin ain't cheap. A good accountant costs money as well. The math on this one is obvious, yet investors often fail to recognize it: Keep your costs low and your turnover lower, and you will win in the end. Barry Ritholtz good win you money The electronics industry expanded rapidly and the seeds for the semiconductor and software revolution were planted. The postwar period also saw the suburbanization of America, the rise of the homeowner, the build-out of the interstate highway system, and the rise of automobile culture. Credit availability expanded dramatically. Barry Ritholtz seeds revolution culture america History shows us that people are terrible about guessing what is going to happen - next week, next month, and especially next year. Barry Ritholtz happen year history people
